Neither populism nor bourgeois democracy ... The only real alternative is the worldwide development of class struggle against all factions of the bourgeoisie

Trump is back at the head of the American state, four years after his electoral defeat by Biden. This represents a crushing defeat for the American bourgeoisie, despite all the efforts made since 2020 by parts of it to isolate Trump and his camp, with the involvement of the Biden administration, the Democratic Party, part of the Republican Party and part of the American intelligentsia. In fact, the recent electoral victory against Harris, even clearer than the previous one against Hilary Clinton in 2016, is by no means fortuitous but is typically the product of the decomposition of capitalist society, of which Trumpism is an offshoot. Since Trump had already clearly demonstrated his power to cause harm at the head of state during his first term in office, and his delirious irresponsibility during the assault on the Capitol in Washington which he encouraged in the face of Biden's election, all this illustrates the impasse in which American capitalism and its bourgeoisie find themselves, unable to curb the hold of populism during Biden's 4 years in office. So much so that it has grown even stronger, resulting in a Trump 2.0 even more delirious than Trump1.

The populist agenda: a social and economic aberration

Trump's programme expresses a radicalisation of populism, notably through his most outlandish electoral promises, and this is an aberration from the point of view of the management of national capital: deportation by the army of millions of illegal immigrants; dismissal of hundreds of thousands of civil servants, including in particular those who, in the performance of their duties, had been led to take a stand against Trump, notably for his role in the assault on the Capitol following Biden's election.

To renew the administration, Trump is selecting candidates for key posts at the head of strategic departments and agencies on the basis of two decisive criteria that do not take into account the candidates' competence: being a Trump loyalist and being ready to join an offensive against the federal state. Among Trump's proposals, the most strategic - since it concerns the head of the Pentagon - and emblematic of the ‘radical break’ promised during his election campaign, is a former military officer and Fox News presenter Pete Hegseth who, moreover, has been accused of sexual assault and excessive alcohol consumption. This method, which guarantees the greatest incompetence in strategic positions to defend the interests of American capital, is a very good indicator of where Trump 2.0 is taking America.

Once again we see that populist politics, when not supervised at the head of the state by other factions of the bourgeoisie, more responsible with regard to the management of national capital, has always proved detrimental to the interests of the latter. This was illustrated, for example, by the disastrous management of the Covid crisis by Trump in the United States and by Bolsonaro in Brazil. And what can come out of the Trump/Musk tandem at the top of the American state? Both undoubtedly share the most foul values of populism, just as they are profoundly in agreement on a number of issues such as the need for a deep purge in the administration, but both are indifferent to the serious dysfunctions of the state apparatus that may result. What's more, behind their agreement there are different motivations that will sooner or later constitute a factor of rivalry and fragility at the top of the state: Trump deliberately wants to take revenge on institutions that have been hostile to him, while Musk wants to improve the profitability of American capital by streamlining the administration. The same disagreement also exists over legal immigration, which Trump wants to block completely, unlike Musk, who wants to make an exception for foreign engineers.

The global consequences of Trump's policies in office

They are predictable in terms of the direction they will take, as announced in his election campaign. They are unpredictable in terms of the final decisions.

What might have seemed inconceivable at any other time and in any other part of the world, with the exception of a few banana republics, has happened in the world's leading power, some time before Trump's second inauguration. The future new president began dreaming aloud of an extra star on the American flag, corresponding in effect to the annexation of neighbouring Canada! Even if this is just a ‘populist joke’, it takes on a whole new colouring when Trump also threatens to take back the Panama Canal (ceded to Panama by Carter in 1979) by force if necessary, on the pretext that China is exerting increasing influence over this crucial sea route. The same goes for Greenland (belonging to Denmark), which Trump is considering annexing because it is necessary for US security. No one can say whether or not this will be followed up, but it has certainly caused a wave of panic in the chancelleries of Europe. Similarly, some of them will certainly have been seized with a certain amount of dread at Musk's harassment of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, accusing him in particular of complicity with paedophile networks.

A new migration crisis?

If Trump succeeds in deporting hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants to the US by force of arms, there is a great risk of provoking a new migration crisis, like the hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war in other parts of the world. The forced arrival of these masses of deportees in Latin American countries will condemn them to languish in abject poverty - which some of them had tried to escape - vulnerable to persecution and blackmail by the police, gangs, etc., and will constitute a risk of destabilisation of the destination countries.

A further boost to the economic crisis

The world is facing the prospect of a historic global economic recession, at least as severe as that of the 1930s. Neither Trump nor any other representative of the bourgeoisie is responsible for this as such; it is the insurmountable contradictions of the capitalist mode of production that are at work. But far from deferring or mitigating the effects of the crisis, the pursuit and amplification of the ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ doctrines only serve to precipitate them, notably through a series of measures already taken by the Biden administration aimed at dismantling all the international bodies responsible for supporting world trade. More generally, the aim of US policy is to concentrate the world's capital and modern industries on its territory, to the detriment of the rest of the world, a growing part of which is destined to look more and more like an industrial wasteland. Such a policy is not unique to a populist administration, but what distinguishes the latter is the irrational violence of its protectionist measures. The world's major economic powers in Europe and Asia are well aware of this situation and are preparing to organise themselves as best they can to face up to a new stage in the trade war announced by Trump. In any case, we can expect the consequences of the trade war and the crisis to be felt, which will inevitably result in a considerable attack on the living conditions of the working class and the impoverishment of the general population.

A further trump card in favour ... of worsening the climate crisis

Trump's commitment to climate change can be gauged from his recent stance on the fires in Los Angeles, publicly blaming the state's governor for them. This shameless avoidance of the root of the problem bodes ill for the future climate impact of the second Trump presidency.

Worsening imperialist tensions

Since the collapse of the Eastern bloc, the United States, the world's policeman, has proved to be the world's biggest chaos-maker. There is no reason why this should change, as it is a condition of its continued global leadership. The world's two main current hotbeds of war, in Ukraine and the Middle East, will serve as illustrations of Trump's defence of America's imperialist interests.

In Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is a continuation of the old policy of encircling Russia, spearheaded by NATO. It is Russia's response to the efforts of US imperialism to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. After Biden's assurance that the United States would not intervene in the event of a Russian invasion of that country, Russia fell into the trap and, after three years of massacres and barbarism, the war in Ukraine has effectively achieved what American imperialism wanted, namely the military and economic exhaustion of Russia in order to deprive China of a possible ally with a powerful nuclear arsenal in a future confrontation with the United States. But today Ukraine finds itself in a situation which, on the ground, is no better, if not worse, than that of Russia, and which can only deteriorate all the faster as US support, through the supply of military equipment, is set to disappear, since Trump has always disagreed with such support. Moreover, Trump has constantly boasted that, if elected, he would ‘end the conflict in two days’, by which he means working out an agreement with both sides. This now seems highly unlikely. If Ukraine collapses and Russia falters, won't the European Union have to intervene to freeze the status quo by protecting a dying Ukraine vulnerable to a Russian last stand? And how? With what countries and what resources? The outcome is unknown and unpredictable.

With this in mind, and also in view of Trump's very likely reiteration of his plan to force the European Union to bear the cost of its own defence, by increasing its contribution to NATO and the military budgets of all its member countries, the latter will have no choice but to bow out of supporting Ukraine.

The situation in the Middle East offers greater visibility. It is very likely that Trump will continue his policy of unconditional support for Israel's imperialist activities; it is even possible that he will openly encourage some of them, particularly those aimed at destroying Iran's military power.

Tensions with China can only increase, as this country is the most likely to threaten the global leadership of the United States. The US will continue to do everything in its power to weaken China by maintaining increasing military pressure on it and hindering its trade with other industrialised countries.

Faced with the attacks of the bourgeoisie, faced with war, faced with the false alternatives of populism/anti-populism, fascism/anti-fascism, there is only one choice: class struggle.

As a product of the decomposition of the capitalist mode of production, populism is in turn an aggravating factor of this decomposition. Thus, the world situation will evolve towards an aggravation of the decomposition of capitalism, towards even more chaos, more war, towards a drastic worsening of the living conditions of the working class as a consequence of the crisis and the war. The attacks on working class conditions encourage defensive struggles, opening up the possibility of an increasingly united and conscious response. Nevertheless, the conditions in which this struggle will develop present mortal dangers which the working class must avoid:

- The very context of decomposition - in particular with the ‘every man for himself’ attitude and the absence of perspectives - is an obstacle to the development of a united and conscious practice and project;

- The working class will always be called upon by the different factions of the bourgeoisie to position itself in favour of democracy against populism, just as it was in the past to support the camp of democracy against that of fascism.

The working class would have everything to lose by succumbing to despair, to the feeling of ‘no future’ ..... The only terrain of struggle which is specific to the working class and which has a future is that of the defence of its economic class interests in response to the attacks of capitalism in crisis. This is the only basis for the politicisation of its struggles and therefore holds out the prospect of the overthrow of capitalism.

Sylunken (10/01/2025)