China is experiencing the biggest economic crisis in 50 years, against a backdrop of intense economic and military pressure from the United States: "China is caught up in the global dynamic of the crisis, with its financial system threatened by the bursting of the property bubble. The decline of its Russian partner and the disruption of the “Silk Roads” towards Europe by armed conflict or the prevailing chaos are causing considerable damage. The powerful pressure of the US further increases its economic difficulties. And faced with its economic, health, ecological and social problems, the congenital weakness of its Stalinist state structure is a major handicap" [1].

In such a context, the plunge into the red of the country's main economic indicators can only be of the utmost concern to the Stalinist state party-state. Economic growth is at its lowest for 45 years (less than 5%), exports are falling (-8.3% year-on-year) and domestic consumption is anaemic. While domestic demand is in a deflationary spiral, government debt - particularly that of the regional authorities - and corporate debt are colossal. China's public and private debt, which exceeded 250% of GDP in 2021, will reach 300% of GDP by mid-2023 (according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland). The catastrophic scale of the problems is particularly evident in the property sector, which accounts for almost 30% of China's national GDP: after the bankruptcy of Evergrande and the default announced for Country Garden, which has 4 times as many projects as Evergrande, there were 648 million unsold housing units at the end of August.[2]. As a result, the banking and credit system is under pressure in the face of a crisis of consumer confidence and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of the business community, which is holding back from investing while it waits to see what happens next.

Even more worrying for the Chinese bourgeoisie is the flight of capital, the fall in foreign investment to its lowest level for 25 years, which Beijing is trying to stem with massive campaigns aimed at investors. However, Xi Jinping's re-election and his treatment of "private Chinese entrepreneurs" such as Jack Ma (Grupo Ant and Alibabá), many of whom have had to flee to Japan, do not inspire confidence. The flight of capital to other countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Mexico is not just an expression of the lack of "guarantees" in China; transport costs and wages there have soared, so that today India and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam and other Indo-Pacific countries are competing with China: "Everyone either wants to sell their operations in China or, if they produce in China, they are looking for alternative places to do it. [This situation] is dramatically different compared to just five years ago"[3].

In short, far from being the engine that revived the global economy in 2008, China is experiencing a deep economic crisis that threatens to drag the rest of the world into further economic turmoil, and whose social impact is increasingly being felt within the country itself. The collapse of the property market is leading to demonstrations by small savers, who are seeing their life savings go up in smoke. The employment situation for young people is just as worrying: 21.3% of young Chinese are unemployed, according to the latest official figures (17 July 2023). In fact, according to local economists, the unemployment rate among 16-24 year-olds is twice as high (46.5% instead of 19.7% in March!), given that almost 20% of young urban dwellers are "tangping" (literally. "lying around"). The Chinese government is manipulating the publication of figures for fear of panicking investors, which would further exacerbate the current crisis and even threaten social and political stability. Social discontent is in fact growing after years of inhuman confinement linked to the "zero Covid" policy and the new healthcare regulation measures. Economic and social destabilisation is also exacerbating workers' struggles against wage arrears and factory closures or relocations, which often lead to violent confrontations with company security services. These strikes and protests increased sharply in 2023, doubling the number recorded in 2022 [4].

This deterioration in the economic and social situation is also causing political upheavals that are increasingly visible right up to the very top of the State, such as Xi's conspicuous absences from international forums (the BRICS economic forum in South Africa, the G20 meeting in India) and the "disappearance" of foreign affairs minister Qin Gang and defence minister Li Shangfu, as well as several generals heading up the "Missile Force" and the Chinese army's equipment development department. The ousting of leaders close to Xi and appointed by him after the last CCP Congress for reasons of "personal conduct" or "corruption" underlines the fact that Xi Jinping is increasingly being held personally responsible, particularly since his catastrophic "zero Covid" policy, which has caused considerable economic and social damage. In August, he reportedly came in for sharp criticism at the traditional summer meeting of the regime's top brass in the seaside resort of Beidaihe, where an assessment of the state of China is drawn up. Retired former leaders are said to have reproached him with a virulence never seen before, which seems to indicate that confrontations between "economists" and "nationalists" are once again intensifying in the face of the danger of economic and social destabilisation that frightens this Stalinist regime. A poisonous atmosphere and extreme tensions have developed within the CCP. In such a climate of factional fighting within the party-state, the future is uncertain and Xi could use the lever of a headlong rush into exacerbated nationalism to impose himself, as has often been the case in China when domestic problems accumulate.

XI Jinping's "Greater China" project, which he hoped to consolidate by 2050, now appears to be under serious threat: current trends indicate that the country will not become the world's leading economic power in the foreseeable future. Faced with an economic and financial crisis that threatens to plunge the country into widespread social chaos, increasingly crushing pressure from the United States and growing opposition within the party, Xi's policies will be marked more than ever by unpredictability, but also by the risk of irrational decisions that threaten to drag the world into a whirlwind of chaos, barbarism and unprecedented military confrontation.

Fo & RH, 9.10.2023 

 

[1] Resolution on the International Situation, 25th ICC Congress [1], International Review no. 170, 2023.

[2] See : P.-A. Donnet, Chine : comment la folie des grandeurs mène l'économie à la ruine [2], Asiayst, 01.10.23

[3] A British portfolio management specialist, quoted in P. Donnet, Chine : la crise économique, prélude d'un hiver politique et social ? [3] Asialyst, 07.09.23)

[4] See : China Labour Bulletin

 

The earthquake that struck Morocco on September 8, and the spectacular floods that followed the bursting of two dams in Libya shortly afterwards, once again confront us with the daily horror and murderous madness of capitalism.

The responsibility of capitalism

After Turkey, where the earth shook this winter, claiming 46,000 victims and displacing two million people in makeshift tents, it's Libya and Morocco's turn to plunge into mourning. The very violent earthquake in Morocco, measuring 7 on the Richter scale, can be explained by the fact that the region is criss-crossed by fault lines, where large tremors can occur, causing widespread damage and casualties. In the 1960s, the city of Agadir in Morocco was already more than 70% destroyed, and more than 12,000 people perished in this major earthquake. In 2004, more than 600 people died in Al Hoceïma. Like the torrential rains in Libya, these phenomena are always presented by the bourgeoisie as mere consequences of the whims of nature. Humanity thus seems powerless in the face of what looks like fate, exposed to the implacable laws of nature.

But while all these phenomena are indeed natural, the catastrophes they engender are anything but! Not only are they multiplying and accumulating as a result of global warming and decaying infrastructures, but they are also transforming these situations into veritable social catastrophes. In Libya, for example, the flood figures are staggering: in the northeastern city of Derna, the World Health Organisation has put the death toll at close to 4,000, a figure which it believes to be far below reality. A veritable hecatomb! And the bourgeoisie's responsibility for the disaster is far more visible than in Morocco. It's clearly obvious! The terrible destruction of Derna was not only due to storm Daniel, but essentially to the fact that the two dams that collapsed had not been maintained, despite desperate warnings of their dilapidated state. The collapse of the Libyan state and the total absence of any form of operational infrastructure or coordinated response greatly exacerbated the impact of the disaster.

These events are yet another indictment of capitalism. It is the poorest populations who are exposed and sacrificed on the altar of profit, of laws that are not "natural", but linked to the commercial logic inherent in capitalism and its deadly dynamic. In the province of Al Haouz, south-west of Marrakech, the victims and destruction were most numerous in working-class neighbourhoods or in poor, outlying, neglected rural areas. The cheaper, flexible multi-storey buildings systematically collapsed. Not only are cheaply constructed buildings legion, but anti-seismic standards dating back to 2002 remain ineffective in these areas of dilapidated buildings. And yet, this is where the vast majority of the proletariat and working classes live, in stark contrast to the much less-affected, or even spared, upmarket districts. The same applies to the flooded areas of Libya, where the poorest were the most exposed. The monstrosity of an obsolete and chaotic mode of production is causing endless suffering and massive destruction.

The cynicism of the bourgeoisie

Thanks to the corruption and negligence of the ruling class, and the lack of prevention and anticipation, the population is now forced to put up with cynicism and abandonment and rely on individual resourcefulness. Even children are being called upon to help clear the rubble! While during wars, such as in Ukraine, the means of destruction deployed with impressive logistics and meticulous organisation are beyond compare, the relief offered to the victims of disasters appears to be pitiful. The chaos and cacophony at disaster sites (when help is available!) reveals time and again the true face of capitalism and the ruling class.

The trap would be to see a genuine surge of "solidarity" in the proposals for aid from the various States and international humanitarian structures. On the contrary, they are barely disguised "interference", a cover enabling the countries involved in the relief efforts to extend their influence and strengthen their positions in defence of their sordid interests: what is modestly called "soft power". During the period 1990-2000, it should be remembered that it was in the name of "humanitarian" interventions, under the cover of the UN and complicit NGOs, that the major imperialist powers advanced their pawns in geostrategic zones, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. All to the great benefit of the "hard power" of arms! The fight for reconstruction contracts is, in the final analysis, secondary. The lies and hypocrisy of the bourgeoisie on humanitarian issues know no bounds!

On the other hand, there is a repugnant chauvinist and nationalist rhetoric that refuses "foreign aid" on the grounds that "Morocco can look after itself". The refusal of French aid in favour of other countries such as Qatar was very explicitly an expression of imperialist rivalry. And so much the worse for the good people of His Majesty who will die in silence for the "greatness" of the Moroccan Kingdom!

As the decomposition of the capitalist system accelerates, all these destructive phenomena will become increasingly frequent and amplified by the context of growing chaos, acute economic crisis and military conflicts, such as the one raging in Ukraine.

A, 29 September 2023

 

In its article “Reactions to the riots: Between brutal condemnations and hypocritical ‘understanding’”[1], Le Prolétaire, the paper of the International Communist Party (ICP-Le Prolétaire) believes it detects in the positions of the ICC towards the riots in France worse than "hypocrisy": the ICC is said to completely trail behind the bourgeois organisation Lutte Ouvrière and the trade union guard dogs. As an opponent of class violence, "the ICC thus sides with a well-ordered, peaceful movement controlled by union collaborationism".

What blunder could the ICC have committed to deserve such a sentence? It dared to express what Le Prolétaire described as "condemnation of the riots", this "revolt of young proletarians" driven by "the hatred of the established order necessary for revolutionary struggle".

The smoke and mirrors of "Le Prolétaire"

But Le Prolétaire has its arguments, and not the least of them! It thinks it can shut us up with a learned excerpt from Marx and Engels’ “Address of the Central Committee to the Communist League”: "Far from opposing the so-called excesses – instances of popular vengeance against hated individuals or against public buildings with which hateful memories are associated – the workers’ party must not only tolerate these actions but must even give them direction".

We would undoubtedly have been stunned by shame if Le Prolétaire had not pitifully stepped in it. In this text, Marx and Engels speak, in fact, of the attitude of the proletariat towards... the bourgeois revolutions of the nineteenth century against feudalism! The "popular vengeance against hated individuals or public buildings" that had to be "tolerated" consisted, in this case, in " carry[ing] out their terroristic phrases" of the democratic petty-bourgeoisie in the context of the struggle of the German bourgeoisie against the monarchy and its palaces! At the time of capitalism's ascendancy, when the historical conditions were not at all ripe for the development of the proletariat's revolutionary struggle, this text never ceased to insist on the need for the proletariat to "organise" itself and to "centralise" its struggle as much as possible. Quite the opposite of Le Prolétaire's passion for riots!

It's not just a rather ridiculous blunder, but further proof (if proof were needed) that the ICP doesn't understand what class struggle is and that it's incapable of placing it in a historical framework: it picks from the old texts of the workers' movement what seems to apply more or less to the present situation without asking itself the slightest question. The ICP's relationship to the Marxist method is not the historical approach of Marx and Engels, Lenin and Luxemburg, nor that of the Italian Communist Left, it is the clumsy exegesis of a text which seems, from a distance, to confirm empirical impressions! So, all the ICP has to do is to assess the riots with a wet finger, to note that proletarians are taking part in them, to fall in love with an outbreak of urban violence which is not at all on the terrain of the class struggle, and to see in it a link with the struggles of the proletariat at the time of the bourgeois revolutions.

"Le Prolétaire", a compass pointing south

With an ersatz Marxist approach slung over its shoulder, Le Prolétaire analyses the riots on the basis of a series of criteria abstractly determined by the self-proclaimed "Party" and applicable to every struggle whatever the situation: the sociological composition of a movement, the perception of a "hatred of the established order", the level of sufficient confrontation with the "trade union bureaucracies", the workers' clarity, judged to be more or less satisfactory, with regard to "the revolution and the paths leading to it"... By way of method, the ICP serves us a clever recipe made up of ingredients of its own choosing, in which each struggle or expression of anger is analysed for its own sake, without any relation to the historical situation, the general dynamic of the workers' struggle and the balance of forces between the classes.

This approach ultimately has led Le Prolétaire to adopt clearly opportunist positions. For example, it states with a straight face that "the violence of the rioters was anything but indiscriminate; [...] their targets were primarily police stations and police posts, prisons and state institutions, town halls, etc., even before the looting of supermarkets and other shops". Is this really the beginning of a confrontation with the bourgeois state, comrades? Does Le Prolétaire have exactly the same vision of class struggle as the worst of the black blocs? It's all the more distressing because the riots are not even comparable to the ideology of the black blocs, who imagine they are really attacking the symbols of capitalism by smashing the windows of banks. During the riots, young people threw fireworks at police stations just as they looted supermarkets, they burned town halls just as they burned their neighbour's car, with no other reason than their rage and their powerlessness.

“Le Prolétaire”, lost in the fog of history

It's our turn, then, to present to the ICP a "wise precept", but this time from Lenin: "’Our doctrine is not a dogma, but a guide for action’, Marx and Engels always said, rightly mocking the method which consists of learning by heart and repeating as they stand ‘formulas’ capable at most of indicating general objectives, necessarily modified by the concrete economic and political situation at each particular phase of history". Contrary to the frivolous empirical approach of Le Prolétaire, the workers' movement has always insisted on the importance of a precise and methodical analysis of the context in which a struggle takes place in order to grasp its real meaning and perspectives. The international dynamic of the class struggle, whatever the apparent radicalism or massiveness of this or that expression of anger, is obviously an essential point of reference. Without a rigorous framework of analysis, the ICP is condemned to grope its way through the fog of history.

Thus Trotsky, incapable, like the ICP, of grasping the importance of the historical context, thought that "the French revolution [had] begun" with the huge strikes of 1936 in France. Contrary to the great clarity of the Italian Left, he thereby contributed to the disorientation of many militants who had remained faithful to the cause of the proletariat.

In reality, after the defeat of the revolutionary wave of 1917-1923 and the triumph of the Stalinist counter-revolution, the proletariat underwent a profound retreat in consciousness which was to lead it to the World War behind the bourgeois ideology of anti-fascism. This example alone should suffice to demonstrate that combativity and massivity are not in themselves sufficient criteria.

Conversely, when the May 68 movement broke out, historical conditions had changed radically compared to 1936. The movement was marked by the return of the crisis, after the period of reconstruction, and the emergence of a generation of young workers who had not suffered the full force of the worst atrocities of the counter-revolution. What was then the biggest strike in history, and the starting point for several waves of struggles around the world over two decades, had been preceded by many small strikes, seemingly insignificant and largely supervised by the unions, but which were in reality of historic importance.

A "wise precept" from the ICC to “Le Prolétaire”

The conditions for the class struggle are not always exactly the same at each stage of historical evolution. Let's look briefly at how the ICC analyses the current situation and what implications it draws for understanding the class struggle and the urban violence we have just witnessed.

In the wake of May 68, the balance of forces in favour of the proletariat opened the way to decisive confrontations with the bourgeoisie. But in the 1980s, although the fighting spirit of the working class prevented the bourgeoisie from putting forward its only "response" to the historic crisis of capitalism (world war), the inability of the proletariat to break out of the straitjacket of the unions and the mystifications of democracy prevented it from pushing forward the revolutionary perspective. This led to an impasse marked by the collapse of the Eastern bloc and the whole campaign about the "death of communism" and the "triumph of democracy". This is what the ICC has identified as the ultimate phase in the decadence of capitalism, its decomposition, which has constantly fuelled phenomena characteristic of the rotting of society: an increase in disasters of all kinds, chaos and every man for himself on the imperialist scene, on the social and political level, a rise in the influence of the most irrational and deadly ideologies, despair, "no future", etc.

This new situation has meant that working class struggles have suffered a major setback for over thirty years, despite sporadic expressions of fighting spirit (CPE, Indignados, Occupy, etc.). The British proletariat, despite being one of the most experienced and combative in history, represented the quintessence of this retreat, since until 2022 it remained largely passive and resigned in the face of the extremely brutal attacks by the bourgeoisie.

The recent acceleration of decomposition, marked by the Covid-19 pandemic and, even more so, by the war in Ukraine, has only served to amplify the deep crisis into which capitalism is sinking. All the deleterious effects of decomposition have deepened still further, feeding on each other in a kind of uncontrollable 'whirlwind'.

However, as the crisis became more and more unbearable, the proletariat began to react: first in Britain where, for the first time in more than thirty years (!), the proletariat showed its discontent, month after month, through countless strikes, then, almost simultaneously, in many countries, notably in France, Germany, Spain, Holland... but also in Canada, Korea and, today, in the United States.

Millions of workers took to the streets against the pension reforms in France, affirming at every demonstration the need to fight together, beginning, in embryonic form, to make the links with struggles in other countries, to look back on their past experiences (particularly the CPE and May 68) and to consider the means of struggle. Despite the weight of corporatism and the immense difficulties in confronting the unions and all the social and ideological shock absorbers that the bourgeoisie creates, the proletariat is beginning to recognise itself as a class, to fight massively on an international scale, and to express reflexes of solidarity and combativity that we have seen only very marginally for decades. We are witnessing a real break with the previous situation of passivity! But the lack of an analytical framework has led Le Prolétaire to see in this break only the "defeat" of vulgar "sheep-like mobilisations".

The present period therefore sees both the brutal acceleration of decomposition, with all that it brings with it in despair and the absence of perspective, and the return of working class combativity. This means that the development of the working class struggle will necessarily come up against expressions of despair and impotence within it, which will remain burdens for the proletariat and which the bourgeoisie will not cease to promote. The riots and inter-class movements like the "yellow vests" are caricatural illustrations of this!

The riots did nothing more than expose the total impotence of desperate youth: it didn't take the state a week to restore order and ferociously repress the rioters. Above all, the urban violence was a real brake on the development of the class struggle. In dividing the workers for nothing, they have given the bourgeoisie an opportunity to try to undermine the combativity and unity that are beginning to emerge, through a campaign whose latest echoes are the government's despicable racist propaganda around "banning the abaya in schools".

A large section of the left of capital has also taken advantage of the situation to undermine the proletariat's ongoing reflection on the means of struggle: "you wanted more radicalism during the struggle against pension reform: here's an example that makes the bourgeoisie tremble!", "you wanted greater unity among workers: long live the convergence of the yellow vests and the youth of the suburbs!"...

The irresponsibility of “Le Prolétaire”

And the ICP, a victim of its own confusion, of its inability to understand the class struggle, has finally placed itself in the slipstream of the leftists.

At a time when the working class so badly needs to develop its unity, Le Prolétaire sings the praises of urban violence which has been a tremendous opportunity for the bourgeoisie to divide the working class, not only in France, but also on an international level where the press has made much of the riots in order to better discredit class violence and mass demonstrations! At a time when the working class so desperately needs to develop its consciousness, its organisation and its methods of struggle, Le Prolétaire presents indiscriminate violence, involving the destruction of municipal buildings and the looting of supermarkets, as the pinnacle of the class struggle! At a time when the working class so desperately needs to regain its self-confidence, Le Prolétaire disgustedly throws a handkerchief over its "sheepish" struggles and presents its steps forward as "defeats"!

The frivolity with which Le Prolétaire examines the riots is not only inconsistent, it is above all irresponsible. For the ICP, unlike the Trotskyist parties and the entire capitalist extreme left, is an organisation of the Communist Left. Despite all our disagreements, the ICP belongs to the camp of the proletariat and therefore has a responsibility towards the workers' movement and the working class. Instead of seriously confronting its positions with the other organisations of the proletarian political milieu, instead of showing the minimum of solidarity and fraternity which should animate it towards this same milieu, it puts on an equal footing a bourgeois organisation such as Lutte Ouvrière and the ICC, in the middle of an indigestible article, without the slightest concern for the political responsibilities incumbent upon it.

This irresponsibility is also expressed by the ICP towards workers who are closer to the positions of the working class, whose confusion it helps to maintain by dint of opportunist contortions and its renunciation of the precious legacy of the workers' movement: the Marxist method.

EG, 20 September 2023