The crisis is world-wide –so is the class struggle!

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The International Monetary Fund, in its 2009 World Economic Outlook, expects continuing decline in all the most advanced economies.

It does predict growth in countries such as India and China, but, overall, in the words of its chief economist, "We now expect the global economy to come to a virtual halt." Declaring that the outlook is worse than at any time since the Second World War can seem rather abstract. The International Labour Organisation (a UN agency) is very concrete in its latest forecasts. Last October it forecast that 22 million jobs would be lost worldwide in 2009. In January it revised that figure, saying that globally as many as 51 million workers could lose their jobs this year. It's a simple calculation to work out that means, on average, nearly a million people every week finding themselves out of work.

There are no exceptions. In the US nearly 600,000 lost their jobs in January. That's 2 million in the last 3 months, 4 million in the last year. In China, during the last year, 15.3% of their 130 million migrant workers left the coastal manufacturing areas to return to rural homes. To that figure of 20 million should be added all the workers who have stayed in the cities to search for work. The Chinese ruling class continues to warn of the possibility of social unrest, and recently has added the danger of ‘violence' as another potential outcome of the economic situation.

No workers' job is safe; and even when they have work, wages are being cut and working conditions worsened.

But workers around the world are showing their unwillingness to accept these attacks: there are daily strikes and demonstrations in China; at the end of January 2.5 million workers in France struck in protest about unemployment; students and young workers in Italy, France, Germany and above all Greece have been out on the streets demonstrating their rage against a society which offers them no future. The anger expressed by the wildcat strikes in Britain's refineries and power stations is not specific to the UK but part of an international response to the deepening economic disaster.

The ruling class knows perfectly well that the working class has not been passive in response to the attacks brought about by the economic crisis. As the Daily Telegraph (23/1/9) put it: "Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Greece and Iceland have all faced social unrest and rioting as unemployment soars and as many European countries have been forced to impose severe cuts to government spending. A senior EU source has told The Daily Telegraph that a March summit of European leaders will examine the increasing unrest as unemployment rises across Europe and cuts to social programmes bite."

The news that our exploiters are co-ordinating their response to our struggles is an important reminder that, whatever the immediate causes of our combats, we have to organise and extend our struggles, drawing in other workers, discussing the means and the goals of our struggle, if we are going to create a power capable of confronting capitalism and all its forces.

WR 7/2/9

Comments

China

I must first commend you on picking up the point of the reality of the number of migrant workers (nongmingong) laid off in recent months in that there are a number above the 20 million announced still in the cities looking for work.
This along with the students, urban workers and the demobilised military is a potential key area of struggle alongside the rural question.

We are in the midst of preparing a fuller analysis but certain key events have recently arisen that I will forward here.

"...

“China may be entering a period where mass social unrest is inevitable, a report in the Xinhua News Agency's Outlook Weekly magazine warned on January 6.”

Official figures are rarely maintained in an up to date fashion, indeed the latest official figures at our disposal are for 2005, with 87,000 labor disputes reported, a figure up from 58,000 in 2003. There is no doubt that this is a rising tide that has been maintained, however unevenly since 1999/2000. Literaly there are several thousand labor/land anti corruption disputes daily many ongoing and simmering pprotests where the class has leant valuable lessons.

What we can do is attempt, based on our experience, to extrapolate raw data not in terms of statistical analysis but of qualitative analysis. Such reveals certain key developments for 2008 that bode badly for the capitalist autarchy of China.

In March of 2008, some 20,000 workers of Huaxi in Zhejiang region took control of the entire town marking the first time local officials actually lost control of a town.

On November 21, 1,000 demobilised troops, demanding to meet with government officials over jobs, clashed with 500 police in Tainan city. About 200 were subsequently arrested

On December 2nd Traffic police in Leiyang city, Hunan attacked the local Communist Party of China headquarters in a dispute over low pay. It is the first time since the 1970s that any police have been involved in protests, indicating the extent of social discontent.

December also marked a watershed in the tide of struggle. For the first time since Tiananmen 1989, official security forces opened fire on protestors, villagers protesting illegal land resumption near Shanwei, Guangdong. ...the security forces opened fire killing three people and wounding eight.

..."