Interesting and informative communique about the situation in Brazil. However, its not clear to me the extent to which the comrades see Bolsonaro as an effect of US "interference" in the Brazillian political process, some kind of factional fight within the political class over the best interests of the Brazillian national capital or as evidence of the effects of a political decomposition in which the established parties were thouroughly discredited and Bolsonaro emerged as a kind of "populist" alternative. The obvious answer is that it was a little bit of all of the above, but what are the relative weights of these factors?
I am a little skeptical of narratives that place too much emphasis on foreign intervention (Like the absurd idea that Trump owes his Presidency mostly to Putin). Even if there is a certain weight exerted by more dominant powers, there still needs to be cooperation from some faction of the national bourgeoisie. How did some come to see it as in the interests of the Brazillian national capital to discredit Lula and the PT and risk or even promote a Bolsonaro presidency. Is Bolsonaro the desired outcome of the policy of the criminalization of Lula and others or was he an unintended consequence? How actively did some factions of the Brazilian ruling class seek to bring the country back into the US orbit?
The populist element of the situation seems to me under examined here. How can Lula be the most popular politican in thecountry--if he were able to run he would have won--yet, absent his candidature a right-wing reactionary like Bolsonaro wins? What does this say about the state of the popular consciousness right now given the social situation in the country? There is a certain ring here of the popular slogan "Bernie would have won!" (If he weren't cheated out of the Demcoratic Party nomination by Clintonites) in the US, which may or may not be true, but it is nevertheless true that he is one of the country's most popular politicans, with some level of crossover support among Trump voters. Is there a similar dynamic with the Lula/Bolsonaro paradox, or does this reflect something else--less a populist "throw the bastards out," menatlity and more a function of political and ideological polarization? So less the Trump-Bernie condominium of outrage and more a Trump-Hillary kind of politics?
And whatever the answer, where does this leave the Brazilian working class more than half a decade on from the mass mobilizations against attacks on the social wage? Does the Bolsonaro victory reflect the burial of this combativity or a confused electoralist continuation of it in populist form?