The Eurozone crisis just isn't going away! Here is the link to my latest post on libcom.
Jingle Jangle Morning Post
3 Parallels and a Funeral (very belated)
Having realised that the tripling of its back-up funds last year will be inadequate to cope with the next leg of the economic crisis, the International Monetary Fund is seeking in November’s G20 meeting at Seoul to raise its firepower from $750bn to $1 000bn. At the same time, the IMF wishes to fine tune its “global stabilisation mechanism” for the specific needs of individual countries. The most risky states would have the most rigorous (read: painful) demanded with any IMF support; for the least risky, intervention would be available with virtually no conditions attached, and could be provided even prior to a crisis. As the IMF managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, phrased it: “Even when not in a time of crisis, a big fund, likely to intervene massively, is something that can help prevent crises”. The unspoken words shriek: worse, much worse, is on its way.
By way of illustration. European banks’ liabilities are estimated at more than 30 trillion euros. $2.6 trillion of this is short-term, and must be repaid or rolled-over within 2 years; worldwide, there are another $2.4 trillion owed to bondholders and other creditors, according to the central banks’ bankers, the Bank for International Settlements, with a further $1.3 trillion to be refinanced by US banks. The Bank of England says UK banks’ bond issuance must come to £800 billion, or about £25bn each month – twice the rate for the current year. The UK Office for National Statistics has clarified that the current public sector net debt figure is an “open-ended concept”, once off-balance sheet liabilities (such as unfunded state and public sector pension schemes, and private finance initiatives) are taken into account. These bring a potential debt of £4.84 trillions. This dwarfs the national debt and is 400% of gross domestic product.
Comments are welcome.